2021 NFL Draft: What The Last Decade Says About Moving To A Quarterback, Plus A Few Business Assumptions

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The 2021 NFL Draft will certainly provide the quarterback intrigue that has been lost over the past two years. Four and maybe five quarterbacks (Trevor Lawrence of Clemson, Zach Wilson of BYU, Justin Fields of Ohio State, Trey Lance of North Dakota State and Mac Jones of Alabama) are expected to be taken in the first round and the teams will manage to put themselves in a position to select one.

As teams begin to craft business deals for the April draft, CBS Sports is looking back on previous deals to speculate on what it would take to ease the transition to a quarterback.

In the last 10 draft, 26 quarterbacks have been taken in the first round and there has been an average of one trade each year to take a quarterback in the top half of the round. Most of the movement is expected to happen this year as well, so that’s the goal of this brainstorming exercise.

2018

Jets gain 3 places to land Sam Darnold

The jets receive: N ° 3 overall (Sam Darnold)
The foals receive: 6th overall, 37th overall, 49th overall, 2019 second round pick
Indianapolis used picks to select G Quenton Nelson, OT Braden Smith and others.
Point differential: Foals +282.16

Invoices deal with 3 picks in the top 60, select Josh Allen

Invoices receive: n ° 7 overall (Josh Allen), n ° 255 overall
The buccaneers receive: n ° 12 overall, n ° 53 overall, n ° 56 overall
Point differential: Buccaneers +101.21

Cardinals take back franchise hope Josh Rosen

Cardinals receive: No. 10 overall (Josh Rosen)
Adventurers receive: n ° 15 overall, n ° 79 overall, n ° 152 overall
Point differential: Raiders +0.17

2017

Bears make shocking gesture for Mitchell Trubisky

Bears receive: No. 2 overall (Mitchell Trubisky)
49ers receive: 3rd overall, 67th overall, 111th overall, 2018 third round pick
San Francisco turned the third pick into DE Solomon Thomas. Pick # 67 was used on RB Alvin Kamara, but the rights were traded with the Saints.
Point differential: 49ers +45.51

The chefs land a generational talent at Patrick Mahomes

The chefs receive: N ° 10 overall (Patrick Mahomes)
Invoices receive: No.27 overall, No.91 overall, 2018 first-round pick
Buffalo picked CB Tre’Davious White after trading, but that also came at the expense of Mahomes’ selection.
Point differential: Invoices +104.47

Browns bend their luck at Deshaun Watson

Texans receive: No. 12 overall (Deshaun Watson)
Browns receive: No. 25 overall, 2018 first round pick (No. 4)
Cleveland took on quarterback Baker Mayfield the following year. The Browns selected CB Denzel Ward and S Jabrill Peppers, who were used in the Odell Beckham Jr. trade, with the picks acquired from Houston, but Watson’s value easily overrides those additions.
Point differential: Browns +377.26

2016

Rams Get Aggressive When Trading For Jared Goff

The rams receive: N ° 1 overall (Jared Goff), N ° 133 overall, N ° 177 overall
The Titans receive: No. 15 overall, No. 43 overall, No. 45 overall, No. 76 overall, 2017 first round pick, 2017 third round pick
Tennessee’s pick of Los Angeles was No. 5 overall the following year. The Titans used the picks in return to essentially reshape their offense: OT Jack Conklin, RB Derrick Henry, WR Corey Davis and TE Jonnu Smith. Conklin was the result of the team’s trade.
Point differential: Titans +68.42

Browns seize opportunity to fill quarterback need

Eagles receive: 2nd overall (Carson Wentz), fourth round pick in 2017
Browns receive: 8th overall, 77th overall, 100th overall, 2017 first-round pick, 2018 second-round pick
Cleveland traded a second time and took on WR Corey Coleman. The return to Wentz was quite catastrophic.
Point differential: Browns +176.89

2012

Washington mortgages RGIII’s future

Washington receives: N ° 2 overall (Robert Griffin III)
The Rams of Saint-Louis receive: 6th overall, 39th overall, 2013 first-round pick, 2014 first-round pick (# 2)
St. Louis picked up the second overall pick in the next draft, but used it against OT Greg Robinson. In 2013, they traded a second time and selected DL Michael Brockers and then added CB Janoris Jenkins with a pick received from Washington.
Point differential: Rams +782.54
Based on the trade value table, the points differential ceded by Washington was the equivalent of # 2 overall, # 20 overall, and # 182 overall. In the end, it might have been worth it if Griffin had banked on his Rookie of the Year campaign and had a successful career.

2011

Jaguars pass from David Garrard, select Blaine Gabbert

Jaguars receive: n ° 10 overall (Blaine Gabbert)
Washington receives: n ° 16 overall, n ° 49 overall
Washington traded in 2011 and selected DL Ryan Kerrigan, who has been one of the NFL’s most productive rushers for the past 10 years.
Point differential: Washington +35.8

In each of the 10 trades, the team that traded the rights of the quarterback was paid more than the equivalent of the choice. On average, the team that traded the highest pick received a +197.443 point differential, which equates to the No. 26 overall selection. If the quarterback was successful, it was worth it. Kansas City is not losing any sleep by getting the “worst” end of the deal, according to the table of trade values.

The hindsight is 20/20 in some cases when future choices are traded. Essentially, it is about taking out a loan on the success of the team. Some loans default, while others are prepaid. In three of 10 trades, the team moved to take a quarterback sent a top-5 pick in the next draft.

What does this mean for the commercial market this year?

To explore some hypothetical situations, let’s use Miami’s # 3 overall pick to build some deals. Jacksonville is not trading his pick and New York could very well take a quarterback as well. The Dolphins are unlikely to take a quarterback this year after selecting Tua Tagovailoa from Alabama a year ago. Business partners are snatched from CBS Sports’ three levels of needy quarterback teams: Atlanta, Philadelphia, Caroline, Denver and San Francisco. As for future picks, there are screenings for the following season.

Dolphins receive: 4th overall, 35th overall, second round pick in 2022 *
Falcons receive: n ° 3 overall
* Based on the 12th selection in each round the following year.

Dolphins receive: 6th overall, first-round pick in 2022 *
Eagles receive: n ° 3 overall
* Based on the 12th selection in each round the following year.

Dolphins receive: 8th overall, seventh-round pick in 2021, first-round pick in 2022 *, third-round pick in 2022 *
The panthers receive: 3rd overall, fourth round pick in 2021
* Based on the 12th selection in each round the following year.

Dolphins receive: 11th overall, 40th overall, 2022 first-round pick *
The Broncos receive: n ° 3 overall
* Based on selection 14th overall in each round the following year.

Dolphins receive: 12th overall, 43rd overall, 2022 first-round pick, 2022 third-round pick
49ers receive: 3rd overall, sixth round pick in 2021
* Based on selection 18th overall in each round the following year.

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