Invest with inflation. As long as the dollar is breathing, the peso should not be neglected
The fiscal dollar is in a “PAX” period, flattened by momentary gains for agricultural exporters, as short-term investors focus on finding an inflation hedge in September.A front which is still far from looking cool and which is seriously eroding portfolios and purchasing power, and taking advantage of certain opportunities that the markets are opening up.
Four analysts consulted Country They offer to mix peso instruments to try to gain an advantage over the CPI – although it is not an easy task – without ever neglecting their backs, nor assuming the level of risk.
like always, The market anticipated and partly bought into the optimism generated by the soybean dollar and the promise that the sector would liquidate the equivalent of US$5,000 million, which would increase the reserves of the BCRA. Is it something fixed, like sleeping in peace? “It’s not a permanent solution, but it will have a positive impact. In other words, to save time,” explains Pedro Ciaba Serrate, Head of Research at PPI, and puts a piece of data on the table for evaluation. in terms of CCL) should be around $315, a difference of 10.4% from the current level. If soybean sales do not perform as well as expected, or if there are new stress conditions, CCL will see a rebound. There is scope.
To clarify the starting point, let’s go straight to inflation. From IOL Investonline, the broker’s head of research, Maximiliano Donzelli, warns that “for the rest of the year, advisers have adjusted their inflation forecast for this year to 90.2%”. “Given this scenario, having pesos without investment leads to a loss of purchasing power, positioning yourself in CER and Badler bonds at maturity is a good option.”
On your list are the T2X4 bond, which adjusts its capital by the CER, maturing in July 2024, and the rate differential with the TX24 bond, which is also adjusted by the CER. The IRR from now CER is +7.4% and the estimate is 97.8%. The TB23P bond is added to the adjusted Badlar rate recommendation. “Due to February 2023, it pays a coupon on a quarterly basis at +5.25% Badler rate, while managing to capture a more aggressive monetary policy from the BCRA,” explains the IOL analyst. “For a conservative profile, we prefer to keep the necessary liquidity only in pesos for face-to-face payments and thus avoid the exchange risk”, warns Ciaba Serrett. Their recommendation: “Letters that can be modulated by CER or General Investment Fund (FCI) are interesting for preserving part of the short-term liquidity”.
Tomas Ruiz Palacios, bond analyst at Consultio Financial Services, proposes in the short term to maintain two-thirds of the pesos and one-third of the dollar through the portfolio with the FCI. “A simple and effective strategy could be to invest one-third in the Consultio Multistrategia investment fund, one-third in Consultio Renta National and one-third in Consultio Balance. The first invests in negotiable bonds in pesos, that is to say, these are loans to companies that offer great protection to the investor because they have no sovereign risk; National income invests in indexable Treasury bonds whose maturity is not very distant (and therefore less risky); Although Balance Fund is our Total Return Fund, which takes a bit more risk, it has given returns of 6.5% over the past 30 days, a figure very close to inflation.
Gastón Lentini, independent consultant and consultant registered with the CNV, comes to life with some recommendations for spending not only in spring but also in summer. The first thing he points out:The government’s strategy with the creation of soybean dollars seems to bring cold clothes in the short term, so a $270 dollar is a possibility we should take advantage of, both for those who plan to spend those savings at the end of the year. . And for those looking for an investment. long-term “, Let’s move on to the main question: will it continue to fall? He replies that “if there is no sharp cut in spending, it is only a matter of time before concerns and prices go back up.”
Bonds or funds denominated in dollars that seek to replicate the official movement of the dollar are presented as a possibility for the investor because the futures contracts predict a change of 62% by March 2023, or 110% There is more than TNA,” he added. Lentini. “Of course, if this scenario occurs, CER-adjusted assets will grow even faster, and this logic leads us to recommend a higher proportion of CER-adjusted assets than those pegged to the official dollar,” he said. he. East. In the latter category, he mentions “the fixed UVA terms which are still available at some banks although the equivalent is the inability to hold that money for 90 days and the CER-adjusted FCI which offers a hedge against inflation, although it closes otherwise correct and gives us the possibility of receiving the funds in 48 hours if the conditions require it”.
For investors of all backgrounds, negotiable bonds (ON) in dollars and sowers are a good option to capture a fall in the price of the free exchange rate. IOL’s Donzeley has two more “pearls” to add: Pfizer’s CeDear and the Dow Jones ETF. “Pfizer is a company that serves the healthcare industry in the United States, an industry that has outperformed during a bear market and a slowing economy.” When it comes to the Dow Jones, it is clearly made up of 30 leading US stocks. “It is the only index composed of companies that have shown positive performance in terms of earnings generation over a significant period.”
“For medium/long term savings, the investor who can accept greater volatility in exchange for higher expected returns can access a wider menu of options by looking for vehicles with good credit quality”, offers Ciba Serret. Their recommendations: Certain corporate ONs such as Telecom 2025, Zenia 2027, CGSA 2025 and YPF 2026 (backed by agricultural exports) and provincial dollar bonds also represent an attractive option.
“From royalties and production figures, we show that the two NewQueen 2030 bonds have value, while CABA 2027 and Mendoza 2029 stand out for their satisfactory financial results”, explains the PPI expert.
Lentini offers another option. “If, due to one of the many restrictions, the investor cannot use MEP dollars to buy, I recommend taking positions in marketable bonds with short maturities and waiting to accumulate at the due date. As such, it does not violate the rules and if, for example, he chooses ON from the Arcor RCC9, it is made in the dollar at $267, although he will have to wait until July 23 to receive it.
Seeder is a great option for hedging local risk and holding a dollar portfolio. This month’s PPI portfolio for “hot” investors 40% SPY Cedeear (tracks S&P500), 25% QQQ (tracks NASDAQ), 15% EWZ (Brazil), 15% XLE (energy sector) and composed of 5%. in XLF (Financial Sector).
“If I had to come up with a specific portfolio to think about in February-March 2023, I would put 40% in the FCI CER, 20% in the FCI dollar, 15% in the Cedar of Berkshire Hathaway and 25% in the dollar. I want to deploy to curator. The FCI waits for opportunities, which usually accompanies rule changes, which we are unfortunately used to,” says Lentini.