Mortgage and refinancing rates today, September 17, 2020

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Today’s Mortgage and Refinance Rates

Yesterday, average mortgage rates rose by the smallest measurable amount. Chances are, your lender didn’t bother to change yours. And conventional loans today start at 2.875% (2.875% APR) for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage.

Find and Lock a Low Rate (Jul 6, 2021)

Current mortgage and refinancing rates

Program Rate APR* Switch
Conventional 30 years Fixed 2.875 2.875 Unchanged
Conventional 15 years Fixed 2.625 2.625 Unchanged
Conventional MRA at 5 years 3.375 2.892 -0.01%
30-year fixed FHA 2.25 3.226 Unchanged
15 years fixed FHA 2.25 3,191 Unchanged
5 years ARM FHA 2.5 3,245 Unchanged
Fixed VA over 30 years 2.25 2,421 Unchanged
VA fixed 15 years 2.25 2,571 Unchanged
5 years ARM VA 2.5 2,426 Unchanged
Prices are provided by our network of partners and may not reflect the market. Your rate may be different. Click here for a personalized quote. See our pricing assumptions here.

Find and Lock a Low Rate (Jul 6, 2021)


Last week we lightened this daily article for easier reading. But we’ve moved a lot of the details into a new standalone article:

COVID-19 Mortgage Updates: Mortgage lenders change rates and rules due to COVID-19. To see the latest information on the impact of the coronavirus on your home loan, Click here.

Should You Lock In A Mortgage Rate Today?

Yesterday’s key Federal Reserve policy committee meeting had little effect on mortgage rates. His statement and press conference told markets what they wanted – and expected – to know about the organization’s next steps. He confirmed that he would continue to buy wholesale mortgage bonds.

Tuesday’s sharp rise in mortgage rates was the result of a skewed average. Only those who wanted particular types of refinancing from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac should have been affected much.

So we can come back to our advice earlier in the week. Namely, that your mortgage rate is likely to only go up or down. But there is always a risk that some exceptional and unexpected event will happen that could suddenly push them up or down hard.

As long as this calm situation persists, there is little downside to floating or locking. So you can be guided by your personal risk tolerance. My personal recommendations are:

  • LOCK if the closure 7 days
  • LOCK if the closure 15 days
  • FLOAT if the closure 30 days
  • FLOAT if the closure 45 days
  • FLOAT if the closure 60 days

Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates

Here is the inventory this morning around 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data, compared to around the same time yesterday morning, was as follows:

  • the 10-year Treasury bill yield remained at 0.67%. (Neutral for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates normally tend to follow these particular yields on Treasury bonds, although less recently
  • Main stock market indices were significantly lower. (Good for the mortgage rates.) When investors buy stocks, they often sell bonds, which lowers bond prices and increases yields and mortgage rates. The reverse happens when the indices are lower
  • Oil price increased from $ 39.21 to $ 39.85. (Bad for mortgage rates * because energy prices play a big role in creating inflation and also indicate future economic activity.)
  • Gold price fell to $ 1,944 an ounce from $ 1,976. (Wrong for mortgage rates *.) In general, it is better for rates when gold goes up, and worse when gold goes down. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to cut rates.
  • CNN Corporate Fear and Greed Index fell to 55 from 57 out of 100 possible points. (Good for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) when they exit the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower readings are better than higher ones

* A change of less than $ 20 in gold prices or a few cents on oil prices is a fraction of 1%. We therefore only count significant differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.

Once upon a time, you could look at the numbers above and make a pretty good guess at what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But this is no longer the case. The Fed is now a major player in the mortgage market and can sometimes upset investor confidence.

So use the markets only as a rough guide. They have to be exceptionally strong (rates are likely to rise) or low (they might fall) to build on them. Today they are looking neutral for mortgage rates. Weekly unemployment insurance claims this morning were slightly better than expected. But the disappointed housing starts. And the long-term economic outlook predicted by the Fed remains bleak.

Find and Lock a Low Rate (Jul 6, 2021)

Important Notes on Today’s Mortgage Rates

Here are some things you should know:

  1. The Fed’s ongoing interventions in the mortgage market (at least $ 1 trillion; some say close to $ 2 trillion) are expected to put continued downward pressure on these rates. But it can’t work wonders all the time. So expect short-term increases as well as decreases. And read “For once, the Fed is affecting mortgage rates. here’s why”If you want to understand this aspect of what is happening
  2. Typically, mortgage rates rise when the economy is doing well and fall when it is struggling. But there are exceptions
  3. Only “top” borrowers (with exceptional credit scores, large down payments and very healthy finances) get the ultra low mortgage rates you’ll see advertised.
  4. Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to rate movements – although they all generally follow the larger trend over time.
  5. When rate changes are small, some lenders adjust closing costs and leave their fee schedules unchanged.
  6. In times of high demand, lenders can raise rates to manage their workflow. Neither the markets nor the Fed can help when this happens

So there is a lot going on here. And no one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the hours, days, weeks or months to come. But find out what 10 experts think could happen by the end of this year:

Are mortgage and refinancing rates going up or down?

Over the past few months, the overall trend in mortgage rates is clearly downward. A new all-time low was set in early August and another looked possible a few weeks ago – before better-than-expected employment data ruled out that possibility. Yet a new one remains a real possibility.

In the longer term, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting developments in the economy, the real estate sector and mortgage rates. .

Expert mortgage rate forecasts

And here are their current rate forecasts for the last two quarters of 2020 (Q3 / 20 and Q4 / 20) and the first two of 2021 (Q1 / 21 and Q2 / 21).

Note that Fannie’s (published Tuesdays) and MBAs are updated monthly while Freddie’s is published quarterly. So Freddie’s sometimes feels outdated. The figures in the table below relate to 30-year fixed rate mortgages:

Forecaster T3 / 20 T4 / 20 T1 / 21 T2 / 21
Fannie Mae 3.0% 2.8% 2.8% 2.7%
Freddie mac 3.3% 3.3% 3.2% 3.2%
MBA 3.0% 3.1% 3.1% 3.1%

Expectations therefore vary considerably. You pay your money …

Find your lowest rate today

Everyone from federal regulators to personal finance gurus agree that it’s important to shop around for your new mortgage or refinance. You could save thousands of dollars in just a few years by getting quotes from multiple lenders. And more, if you hold onto your mortgage for a long time or have a large loan.

But rarely have you had more to gain from shopping than now. The mortgage market is currently very messy. And some lenders offer significantly lower rates than others. Worse yet, some make it harder to get a mortgage if you want cash refinancing, an investment property loan, a jumbo loan, or if your credit score is damaged.

So comparison shopping could get you the loan you want – and save you a bundle.

Check your new rate (Jul 6, 2021)

Mortgage rate methodology

Mortgage reports receive rates based on selected criteria from several lending partners every day. We arrive at an average rate and an APR for each type of loan to display in our graph. Because we average a range of rates, it gives you a better idea of ​​what you might find in the market. In addition, we average the rates for the same types of loans. For example, fixed FHA with fixed FHA. The end result is a good overview of the daily rates and how they have changed over time.

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