New Yorkers Anticipate What Primary Will Bring
When New Yorkers go to the polls on August 23, their numbers could be surprisingly low. Analysts say the postponement of half of the state’s primaries from June to the end of August could catch much of the state in final week summer vacation mode, with many potential voters absent, for example, at the beach.
Turnout estimates are very low for the Congressional and State Senate primaries. Politicians in various parts of the state estimated the turnout at 10% or even less. Keith Davies, Democratic campaign manager for Suffolk County on the eastern end of Long Island, said they expected just 5% of voters to vote. The number of early votes has been abysmal.
“Nobody votes,” he said. “It’s vacation time. It’s the last vacation of the summer. Or they take the kids back to college.
This means that every possible vote counts. Davies said he would consider driving 45 minutes each way to get to the election office if it meant helping a single Democratic voter vote. In an ordinary election, it wouldn’t be worth his time. In his race for the state Senate, he expects no more than 5,000 people to run.
And there are a lot of important races, the redistricting having blurred the electoral map of the state, the resignations having left seats vacant, special elections to fill the vacancies being held immediately at the same time as the primaries for the elections of november.
Two longtime Democratic incumbents, Carolyn Maloney and Jerrold Nadler, face off against attorney Suraj Patel in New York’s 12th District. Another incumbent, Mondaire Jones, retreated from his own neighborhood in the city’s northern suburbs to seek out Nadler’s former headquarters in lower Manhattan’s 10th District. In the upstate, there was just as much displacement.
A noticeable trend amid the confusion, said Lincoln Mitchell, a political analyst and Columbia-affiliate professor, is a steady leftward shift by New York’s congressional delegation.
Mitchell thinks that’s great. The younger, more progressive candidates have grown in popularity and are more visible nationally than were their more moderate predecessors.
From 1990 to 2018, when Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez was elected, the New York Congressional delegation, “a sort of left-leaning mainstream of the party, hung way under its weight. It didn’t do much for the Congress. There were committee chairs, but no one was saying so-and-so from New York is a legislative star,” he said. Charlie Rangel, for his part, “has never been a real broker in power. With this seniority, he should have been. Rangel was in Congress for 46 years.
Mitchell said leftists rising up in other parts of the country, like Barbara Lee and the late Ron Dellums, both of California, had no counterparts in New York.
The election of Ocasio-Cortez in the Bronx and Queens, Jamaal Bowman, representing North Bronx and South Westchester counties – both members of the Democratic Socialists of America – and Ritchie Torres in the South Bronx, and Mondaire Jones in suburban Westchester and Rockland counties, both very progressive, changed that, Mitchell said.
Another trend he said he’s noticed is that Democrats aren’t very interested in donating to New York’s Democratic primaries. Instead, big donors are pouring their money into major Senate races in other states to stop Republicans. They donate to John Fetterman in Pennsylvania, Mandela Barnes in Wisconsin or Raphael Warnock in Georgia, rather than supporting New York incumbents like Maloney or Nadler.
Many states had messy redistricting processes, and New York’s was messier than most. Confusion among voters is another factor that undermines turnout. A map drawn by the Democratic-controlled legislature was rejected and a new one, drawn by a judge-appointed special master, was not finalized until late May. It has scrambled countless political plans. The Congressional and State Senate races have been postponed from the June 28 primary date to August 23.
The card caused upheaval. Maloney, chairman of the House Oversight Committee, and Nadler, chairman of the House Judiciary Committee, found themselves vying for votes on the Upper East Side and Upper West Side. Polls showed Nadler leading.
Nadler left District 10, leaving him an open seat which became a free one for all. Mondaire Jones, who previously represented District 17, said he did not want to run against either of the two allies from neighboring districts. He is running for the District 10 seat, a far cry from the region he currently represents.
In the upstate, the reshuffling had already begun when the governor at the time. Andrew Cuomo resigned, elevating Lt. Governor Kathy Hochul instead. She named a successor, Brian Benjamin, but when he resigned on federal bribery charges, she named District 19 Representative Antonio Delgado to the position.
Claudia Tenney was redesigned from her old District 22 headquarters, representing part of central New York, and the new one didn’t suit her. She runs in District 24, much safer for a Republican, taking up much of the Lake Ontario shoreline while avoiding major cities.
Two events blended together in the western New York area around Buffalo. In May, District 23 Representative Tom Reed resigned amid allegations of sexual misconduct. Now facing each other in the new District 23 are two local GOP heavyweights, former state chairman Nick Langworthy and controversial former gubernatorial candidate Carl Paladino.
And District 27 Representative Chris Jacobs has elected not to run. His coming out for gun control in the wake of the Buffalo’s Tops supermarket mass shooting caused fellow Republicans to break with him.
In Suffolk County, Davies said the two congressional races in Districts 1 and 2 represented a break for him. The Democratic candidates for each are unopposed, meaning Davies can direct his energies elsewhere. Republicans contested primaries in both cases. Efforts to reach Republican Suffolk County Chairman Jesse A. Garcia failed.
Davies said the main issues in both districts are abortion, stemming from the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision overturning Roe v. Wade, and the “Common Sense Gun Safety Rules.” He acknowledged that Democrats view abortion as an important issue because it divides Republicans, many of whom, at least in New York, are pro-choice.
He saw the same thing with gun control. He said law-abiding gun owners he knows are supportive because they think those who violate gun laws give them a bad name.
Crime is a problem, although Davies maintained that it has been steadily declining in Suffolk County for five or more years. “But you can’t say that in a political ad, in terms of people’s perception. They don’t believe you.
And, of course, there’s the economy, he says.
Lee Zeldin, now a Republican gubernatorial candidate, has represented the 1st District since 2014. He was a Democrat before that. Democrats think they can backtrack, Davies said, because redistricting “made it bluer.”
Suffolk County residents want bipartisan candidates who can work together and address issues that aren’t party issues, like clean water or clean bays and waterways, Davies said, adding that said candidates leftists like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez wouldn’t fly. the.
The Democratic candidate for District 1 in November is Bridget Fleming, a former prosecutor and proven voter in the area.